Probabilistic inference of fatigue damage propagation with limited and partial information

作     者：Huang Min He Jingjing Guan Xuefei 

作者机构：School of Reliability and System Engineering Beihang University Siemens Corporation Corporate Technology 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Aeronautics》 (中国航空学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第28卷第4期

页      面：1055-1065页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 080102[工学-固体力学] 0801[工学-力学（可授工学、理学学位）] 

主　　题：Fatigue damage propagation Maximum relative entropy Partial information Probability updating Uncertainty 

摘      要：A general method of probabilistic fatigue damage prognostics using limited and partial information is *** and partial information refers to measurable data that are not enough or cannot directly be used to statistically identify model parameter using traditional regression *** the proposed method, the prior probability distribution of model parameters is derived based on the principle of maximum entropy（Max Ent） using the limited and partial information as *** posterior distribution is formulated using the principle of maximum relative entropy（MRE） to perform probability updating when new information is available and reduces uncertainty in prognosis *** is shown that the posterior distribution is equivalent to a Bayesian posterior when the new information used for updating is point measurements.A numerical quadrature interpolating method is used to calculate the asymptotic approximation for the prior *** the prior is obtained, subsequent measurement data are used to perform updating using Markov chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） *** crack prognosis problems with experimental data are presented for demonstration and validation.