Risk analysis for the highly pathogenic avian influenza in China's mainland using meta-modeling

作     者：CAO ChunXiang1, XU Min1,3, CHANG ChaoYi1,3, XUE Yong1, ZHONG ShaoBo1, FANG LiQun2, CAO WuChun2, ZHANG Hao1, GAO MengXu1,3, HE QiSheng1,3, ZHAO Jian1,3, CHEN Wei1,3, ZHENG Sheng1,3 & LI XiaoWen1 1 State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, the Institute of Remote Sensing Applications of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China 2 Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing 100071, China 3 Graduate University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 

出 版 物：《Science Bulletin》 (科学通报(英文版))

年 卷 期：2010年第36期

页      面：4169-4179页

学科分类：090603[农学-临床兽医学] 09[农学] 0906[农学-兽医学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2007CB714404) the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40871173) the Spe-cial Grant for the Prevention and Treatment of Infectious Diseases (2008ZX10004-012) 

主　　题：highly pathogenic avian influenza meta-modeling remote sensing geographical information system Bayesian maximum entropy logistic regression spatiotemporal autocorrelation 

摘      要：A logistic model was employed to correlate the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) with related environmental factors and the migration of birds. Based on MODIS data of the normalized difference vegetation index, environmental factors were considered in generating a probability map with the aid of logistic regression. A Bayesian maximum entropy model was employed to explore the spatial and temporal correlations of HPAI incidence. The results show that proximity to water bodies and national highways was statistically relevant to the occurrence of HPAI. Migratory birds, mainly waterfowl, were important infection sources in HPAI transmission. In addition, the HPAI outbreaks had high spatiotemporal autocorrelation. This epidemic spatial range fluctuated 45 km owing to different distribution patterns of cities and water bodies. Furthermore, two outbreaks were likely to occur with a period of 22 d. The potential risk of occurrence of HPAI in China s mainland for the period from January 23 to February 17, 2004 was simulated based on these findings, providing a useful meta-model framework for the application of environmental factors in the prediction of HPAI risk.