Predictors of common bile duct lithiasis in laparoscopic era

作     者：George Sgourakis Georgia Dedemadi Athanasios Stamatelopoulos Emmanuel Leandros Dionysius Voros Konstantinos Karaliotas 

作者机构：2nd Surgical Department of Korgialenio-Mpenakio Red Cross Hospital Athens Greece Surgical Department of HippocrationUniversity Hospital of AthensGreece Surgical Department of AreteionUniversity Hospital of Athens Greece 

出 版 物：《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 (世界胃肠病学杂志（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2005年第11卷第21期

页      面：3267-3272页

核心收录：

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

主　　题：CBD lithiasis Predictors of CBD stones Laparoscopic CBD exploration 

摘      要：AIM: To analyze retrospectively the records of 294 conse-cutive patients operated upon for gallbladder stones, to determine the predictive factors of synchronous common bile duct (CBD) stones and validate prospectively the generated model. METHODS: The prognostic estimation of a biochemical test and ultrasonography alone to differentiate between the absence and presence of choledocholithiasis was assessed using receiver operating characteristics curve analysis. Multivariate analysis was employed using discriminant analysis for establishment of a best model. Prospective validation of the model was ***: Discriminant forward stepwise analysis disclosed that high values (≥ 2×normal) of SGOT, ALP, conjugated bilirubin and CBD diameter on ultrasound ≥ 10 mm were all prognostic factors of CBD lithiasis in univariate and multivariate analysis, P0.01. History was not included in the model. Prospective validation of the model was performed by multivariate analysis using Visual General Stepwise Regression. Positive predictive value,when considering all these predictors, was 93.3%, while the negative predictive value was 88.8%. Sensitivity of the model was 96.5% and specificity 80%.CONCLUSION: The above model can be objectively applied to predict the presence of CBD stones.