Research on Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen Region's Dynamic Changing of Urbanization Based on Self-Organizing Model
Research on Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen Region’s Dynamic Changing of Urbanization Based on Self-Organizing Model作者机构：Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100039 China Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research CAS Beijing 100101 China
出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》 (中国人口·资源与环境(英文版))
年 卷 期：2005年第3卷第3期
页 面：22-28页
学科分类：0303[法学-社会学] 1007[医学-药学(可授医学、理学学位)] 12[管理学] 1204[管理学-公共管理] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 0706[理学-大气科学]
主 题：self-organizing urbanization dynamic evolvement Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen region
摘 要：Based on the self-organizing modeling principle in the dissipative structure theory, the paper regards the migration coupling between the regions as the influence factor to create the model of regional urbanization simulation and prediction, which is more practical to simulate the space-time and dynamic evolvement characteristics of regional urbanization level. According to the historical data about the population and urbanization of Jiuquan, Jiayuguan andYumen cities, the past 50 years dynamic evolvement trend is simulated and the following 50 years dynamic evolvement trend is predicted with the urbanization dynamic evolvement model based on the self-organizing model. The analysis of effective factors such as economic increase, resources exploitation, ecosystem construction, traffic location, national policies, population migration are given, then the reasons of the dynamic evolvement differences of the three cities urbanization are drawn. The study suggests that the self-organizing model is fit for the simulation of Jiuquan-Jiayuguan-Yumen regional urbanization level in the past 50 years, and the departure between the stimulant and the actual data is under 5%, so it can be used to predict the urbanization future of the three cities. The predicted results show that the regional population will reach 1.074 million and the regional urbanization level will be 72.56%.
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