Long-term stability in protected-areas?A vision from American/New World amphibians
作者机构：Facultad de CienciasUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MexicoCP 04510Mexico CityMexico Instituto de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Cambio ClimáticoUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MexicoCP 04510Mexico CityMexico
出 版 物：《Geography and Sustainability》 (地理学与可持续性（英文）)
年 卷 期：2024年第5卷第4期
页 面：673-683页
核心收录：
学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 07[理学] 071002[理学-动物学]
主 题：Climate lag Conservation Future land use models Governance Temperature tendency
摘 要：Protected areas(PA)have proven to be one of the best ways to conserve biodiversity against environmental *** are considered the most threatened group,with habitat loss due to deforestation identified as their major ***,we assessed for each PA of the American continent:1)amphibian’s occurrence(Global Biodiversity Information Facility(GBIF)*** Union for Conservation of Nature(IUCN)data);2)temperature velocity and estimated the climate residence time,and using the latest models of the land future use;3)we estimated the changes of natural *** cover in three future *** occurrence showed differences between databases,while GBIF data shows that 52%of the amphibian species occurring in the continent are in PA,based on IUCN data,85%are *** from climate change show a low pace of climate velocity during the last century that is maintained in the green scenario(SSP126).However,change in temperature increases in rate in the rest of the scenarios,with scenario SSP58 showing the highest velocity of temperature *** estimates of residence times in PA show that lower levels as emission scenarios tend to be *** results are worrisome since climate lag,specifically temperature increase over the PA will probably affect amphibian communities as shown in previous *** in climate patterns have a direct—mostly negative—impact on amphibians’ability to disperse and *** results of land use change were unexpected,since the categories showed minimal ***,the data on urbanization changes do not seem to be reflecting the trends of other databases,which may be causing artifacts in the comparisons in the future models of land *** research will be necessary to evaluate the extent of similarities and differences in future projections of land use including urbanization and human population between different databases.
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