Initial evaluations of a Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean ocean forecast system in the context of the Deepwater Horizon disaster

作     者：Edward D. ZARON Patrick J. FITZPATRICK Scott L. CROSS John M. HARDING Frank L. BUB Jerry D. WIGGERT Dong S. KO Yee LAU Katharine WOODARD Christopher N. K. MOOERS 

作者机构：Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Portland State University Portland OR 97207 USA Geosystems Research Institute Mississippi State University MSU Science & Technology Center Stennis Space Center MS 39529 USA NOAA National Coastal Data Development Center Stennis Space Center MS 29412 USA Northern Gulf Institute Mississippi State University MSU Science & Technology Center Stennis Space Center MS 39529 USA unaffiliated retired from the Naval Oceanographic Office Stennis Space Center MS 39522 USA Department of Marine Science University of Southern Mississippi Stennis Space Center MS 39529 USA Oceanography Division Naval Research Laboratory Stennis Space Center MS 39529 USA 

出 版 物：《Frontiers of Earth Science》 (地球科学前沿（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2015年第9卷第4期

页      面：605-636页

核心收录：

学科分类：081803[工学-地质工程] 07[理学] 08[工学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0708[理学-地球物理学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：by BP through the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative Award #10121360 to the Northern Gulf Imtitute (Fitzpatrick, Harding) by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Award #2008-ST-061-ND 0001 to Mississippi State University (Fitzpatrick) by the Department of Energy Research Partnership to Secure Energy for America Project #08121-2801 to Portland State University (Mooers, Zaron) supported in this work by NOAA Grant 2010-012 through the U.S. IOOS Program administered by the Southeastern Universities Research Association (Fitzpatrick, Harding, Ko, Wiggert) 

主　　题：Gulf of Mexico Deepwater Horizon ocean forecasting skill assessment 

摘      要：In response to the Deepwater Horizon （DwH） oil spill event in 2010, the Naval Oceanographic Office deployed a nowcast-forecast system covering the Gulf of Mexico and adjacent Caribbean Sea that was designated Americas Seas, or AMSEAS, which is documented in this manuscript. The DwH disaster provided a challenge to the application of available ocean-forecast capabilities, and also generated a historically large observational dataset. AMSEAS was evaluated by four complementary efforts, each with somewhat different aims and approaches： a university research consortium within an Integrated Ocean Observing System （IOOS） testbed; a petroleum industry consortium, the Gulf of Mexico 3-D Operational Ocean Forecast System Pilot Prediction Project （GOMEX-PPP）; a British Petroleum （BP） funded project at the Northern Gulf Institute in response to the oil spill; and the Navy itself. Validation metrics are presented in these different projects for water temperature and salinity profiles, sea surface wind, sea surface temperature, sea surface height, and volume transport, for different forecast time scales. The validation found certain geographic and time biases/errors, and small but systematic improvements relative to earlier regional and global modeling efforts. On the basis of these positive AMSEAS validation studies, an oil spill transport simulation was conducted using archived AMSEAS nowcasts to examine transport into the estuaries east of the Mississippi River. This effort captured the influences of Hurricane Alex and a non-tropical cyclone off the Louisiana coast, both of which pushed oil into the western Mississippi Sound, illustrating the importance of the atmospheric influence on oil spills such as DwH.