Methodology for estimating probability of dynamical system's failure for concrete gravity dam

作     者：王超 张社荣 孙博 王高辉 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety (Tianjin University) 

出 版 物：《Journal of Central South University》 (中南大学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第21卷第2期

页      面：775-789页

核心收录：

学科分类：081504[工学-水利水电工程] 08[工学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 081503[工学-水工结构工程] 

基　　金：Projects(51021004 51379141)supported by the Foundation for Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China 

主　　题：concrete gravity dam dynamical system failure mode identification calculation of system failure probability stochastic model 

摘      要：Methodology for the reliability analysis of hydraulic gravity dam is the key technology in current hydropower *** analysis for the dynamical dam safety should be divided into two phases:failure mode identification and the calculation of the failure *** of them are studied based on the mathematical statistics and structure reliability theory considering two kinds of uncertainty characters(earthquake variability and material randomness).Firstly,failure mode identification method is established based on the dynamical limit state system and verified through example of Koyna Dam so that the statistical law of progressive failure process in dam body are revealed; Secondly,for the calculation of the failure probability,mathematical model and formula are established according to the characteristics of gravity dam,which include three levels,that is element failure,path failure and system failure.A case study is presented to show the practical application of theoretical method and results of these methods.