肝静脉压力梯度对预测终末期肝病的肝硬化患者存活率的影响

作     者：Ripoll C. Baares R. Rincón D. 李翔 

作者机构：Seccon de Hepatologa Servicio de Aparato Digestivo Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Maraón Dr Esquerdo 46 Madrid 28007 Spain 

出 版 物：《世界核心医学期刊文摘（胃肠病学分册）》 (Core Journals in Gastroenterology)

年 卷 期：2006年第2卷第3期

页      面：48-49页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

主　　题：肝静脉压力梯度 患者存活率 终末期肝病模型 血流动力学 力值 预测能力 肝性脑病 分辨能力 预测模型 

摘      要：Measurements of portal pressure, usually obtained via the hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) may be a prognostic marker in cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of HVPG on survival in patients with cirrhosis in addition to the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score. We also examined whether inclusion of HVPG in a model with MELD variables improves its prognostic ability. Retrospective analyses of all patients who had HVPG measurements between January 1998 and December 2002 were considered. Proportional hazards Cox models were developed. Prognostic calibrative and discriminative ability of the model was evaluated. In this period, 693 patients had a hepatic hemodynamic study, and 393 patients were included. Survival was significantly worse in those patients with greater HVPG value (univariate HR, 1.05; 95%CI, 1.02-1.08; P = .001). HVPG remained as an independent variable in a model adjusted by MELD, ascites, encephalopathy, and age (multivariate HR, 1.03; 95%CI, 1.00-1.06; P = .05) so that each 1 mmHg increase in HVPG had a 3%increase in death risk. In addition, HVPG as well as MELD score variables and age, significantly contributes to the calibrative predictive capacity of the prognostic model; however, discriminative ability improved only slightly (overall C statistic [95%CI]; MELD score variables: 0.71 [0.62-0.80], MELD score variables, age, and HVPG 0.76: [0.69-0.83]). In conclusion, HVPG has an independent effect on survival in addition to the MELD score. Although inclusion of HVPG and age in a survival predicting model would improve the calibrative ability of MELD, its discriminative ability is not significantly improved.