Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Sichuan Basin Based on Information Diffusion Theory
Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Sichuan Basin Based on Information Diffusion Theory作者机构：Liaoning Lightning Protection Technical Service Center Zhumadian Meteorological Bureau Liaoning Meteorological Service Center
出 版 物：《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 (气象与环境研究（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2014年第5卷第5期
页 面：15-21页
学科分类：08[工学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 09[农学] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0904[农学-植物保护]
主 题：Information diffusion Ratio of area covered by drought to sown area of crops Risk assessment Risk zoning China
摘 要：Based on data of agricultural drought situation and sown area of main crops in each county or district of the Sichuan Basin, the spatial distribution and probability of agricultural drought risk at different risk levels were studied using normal information diffusion method, and the risk zoning was carried out. The results showed that normal information diffusion method could fit the distribution of agricultural drought risk in the Sichuan Basin. By comparison with the end of the 20^th century, agricultural drought risk in Meishan, Chongqing City and so on increased at the beginning of the 21^st century when x1≥ 10% or x1≥40%. Agricultural drought risk was low in the west of the Sichuan Basin, which was related to rich precipitation here, but it was high in Bazhong, Zhongjiang, Luxian and so forth. The risk zoning results can provide scientific references for disaster prevention and emergency management of government.
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