Impact of technology advances on China's CO_2 emission reduction

作     者：ZHENG YouFei LI HaiTao WU RongJun WANG LianXi 

作者机构：The Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University oflnformation Science &Technology Nanjing 210044 China The College of Environmental Science and Engineering Nanjing University oflnformation Science & Technology Nanjing 210044 China 

出 版 物：《Chinese Science Bulletin》 (中国科学通报)

年 卷 期：2010年第55卷第19期

页      面：1983-1992页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 1204[管理学-公共管理] 07[理学] 083305[工学-城乡生态环境与基础设施规划] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 

基　　金：supported by the Research Foundation of National Soft Science Project of Miuistry of Science and Technology of China (2009GXS5B091) operation items of the China Meteorological Administration,namely "Economic Assessment of the Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Reduction in China’s Policies of Ad-dressing Climate Change" 

主　　题：二氧化碳排放量 减排技术 中国 大气二氧化碳浓度 全球气候变化 经济评估 排放总量控制 灵敏度分析 

摘      要：Global warming tends to be the major characteristics of the dramatic global climate *** deal with these changes,the impact of reducing greenhouse gas(GHG) emission on Chinese future economic and social development has to be *** this paper,a Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy(RICE),which is well known and accepted widely,has been used for Chinese economic assessment of climate change after introduction,assimilation and *** on a sensitivity analysis of technical parameters in the RICE model and constrained targets proposed for energy saving and emissions reduction technological advance programs of China from 2000 to 2050,the economic impact of the programs is *** results indicate that when technology advances,Chinese CO2 emission,climate loss,and the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature will all *** is assumed that in 2010,the CO2 emission is 20% lower than in 2005,CO2 emission in 2050 would only double the level in 2000,the accumulative CO2 emission would be decreased by 12.4 GtC,and the atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature in 2050 would reduce by 35 GtC and 0.04°C respectively from 2000 to *** accumulative climate loss from 2000 to 2050 will drop down by 4.6 billion dollar,which only accounts for 6% of the global total ***,the economic benefit the developed countries will obtain is 10 times that for China under such a technological advance *** decrease of the CO2 emission control rate is 1% in cooperation policy while 4.6% in non-cooperation policy,which would relieve China s burden in the control of CO2 total emission and thereby benefit China in participation of the international cooperation for CO2 emission reduction.