Prediction rule for estimating advanced colorectal neoplasm risk in average-risk populations in southern Jiangsu Province

作     者：Guochang Chen Boneng Mao Qi Pan Qian Liu Xinfang Xu Yueji Ning 

作者机构：Department of GastroenterologyAffiliated Hospital of Jiangsu University 

出 版 物：《Chinese Journal of Cancer Research》 (中国癌症研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第26卷第1期

页      面：4-11页

核心收录：

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100214[医学-肿瘤学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by Jiangsu Provincial Wuxi Science and Technology Bureau Project(No.CSZ00N1248) 

主　　题：Colorectal neoplasm (CN) colonoscopy cross-sectional studies screening risk factor 

摘      要：Objective：The aim of this study was to establish the risk scoring system towards the advanced colorectal neoplasm （CN） risk in the average-risk populations in the southern Jiangsu Province,and to evaluate the screening ***：Totally 905 cases of the average-risk populations who received the colonoscopy were selected as the *** multivariate logistic regression analysis method was used to establish the scoring system towards the occurrence risk of the advanced tumor,and its screening efficacy was evaluated through the prediction consistency,distinguishing ability and screening ***：The scoring system consisted of five variables,namely age,gender,coronary heart disease,egg intake and stool *** results revealed that it had good prediction consistency （P=0.205） and distinguishing ability [the area under the receiver operating characteristic （ROC） curve was 0.75,with 95％ confidence interval （95％ CI） of 0.69-0.82].Thus,2.5 points was set as the screening cutoff value,and its sensitivity,specificity,accuracy,positive predictive value,negative predictive value,positive likelihood ratio and negative likelihood ratio were 93.8 ％,47.6％,50.1％,9.1％,99.3％,1.79 and 0.13,***：The established scoring system had good screening efficacy,and can be used as the screening tool applying to the CN screening within the average-risk populations in the southern Jiangsu Province.