Divergent responses of runoff to climate change in the upper basins of the Third Pole dominated by westerlies and monsoon

作     者：Qikai SUN Fengge SU He SUN 

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemEnvironment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China 

出 版 物：《Science China Earth Sciences》 (中国科学（地球科学英文版）)

年 卷 期：2024年第67卷第8期

页      面：2592-2614页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 08[工学] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41988101) the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(Grant No.2019QZKK0201) the National Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China(Grant No.42201140) 

主　　题：Upper basins of the Third Pole Climate change Westerlies and monsoon Runoff variations Large-scale circulation factors 

摘      要：The diverse climates,distribution of snow and glaciers,and geographic locations directly affect the runoff response to climate change in the upper basins of the Third *** present,a comprehensive analysis of runoff variations and their distinct responses to climate change in the westerlies-and monsoon-dominated upper basins is still *** study comprehensively analyzed annual runoff variations in westerlies-dominated basins(the upper basins of the Aksu(UAKS),Syr Darya(USRD),Yarkant(UYK),Hotan(UHT),Amu Darya(UAMD),and Indus(UI))and monsoon-dominated basins(the upper basins of the Yangtze(UYA),Yellow(UYE),Lancang(ULC),Nujiang(UNJ),and Yarlung Zangbo(UYZ))of the Third Pole from 1961 *** multi-source meteorological data and large-scale circulation factors,this study investigated the divergent responses of runoff in the upper basins to climate change,and explored the large-scale circulation mechanisms underlying runoff variations in these upper *** results showed that:(1)The annual runoff in the majority of upper basins(except for the UYE and UYZ)exhibited an increasing trend,and the annual runoff in the UAKS,UYK,and UI showed a significant increasing trend from1961 to *** annual runoff in the upper basins of the Third Pole changed abruptly from decreasing to increasing between the 1980s and 2000s,with the exception of the UYE.(2)The runoff in the monsoon-dominated upper basins has been controlled primarily by changes in precipitation over the past 55 *** contrast,the runoff in the westerlies-dominated upper basins exhibited three distinct long-term responses to climate change:temperature-dominated(UYK and UHT),precipitation-dominated(USRD and UAMD),and the combined influence of precipitation and temperature(UAKS and UI).Since the 1960s,the sensitivity of runoff to warm season temperature changes in the most westerlies-dominated upper basins has decreased,while the response of runoff to precipitation changes has intensified.(3)The stud