Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Local Lyapunov Exponent to Second-Kind Predictability

作     者：Ming ZHANG Ruiqiang DING Quanjia ZHONG Jianping LI Deyu LU Ming ZHANG;Ruiqiang DING;Quanjia ZHONG;Jianping LI;Deyu LU

作者机构：State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(ESPRE)/Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of ChineseMinistry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Department of Ocean ScienceHong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong KongChina College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System(DOMES)/Key Laboratory of Physical OceanographyMinistry of Education/Academy of the Future Ocean/Center for Ocean Carbon NeutralityOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China Laoshan LaboratoryQingdao 266237China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG)Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth ScienceUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2024年第41卷第9期

页      面：1769-1786页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42225501 and 42105059) the National Key Scientific and Tech-nological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simula-tion Facility”(EarthLab) 

主　　题：conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent second-kind predictability coupled Lorenz model ENSO 

摘      要：In order to quantify the influence of external forcings on the predictability limit using observational data,the author introduced an algorithm of the conditional nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(CNLLE)*** effectiveness of this algorithm is validated and compared with the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent(NLLE)and signal-to-noise ratio methods using a coupled Lorenz *** results show that the CNLLE method is able to capture the slow error growth constrained by external forcings,therefore,it can quantify the predictability limit induced by the external *** this basis,a preliminary attempt was made to apply this method to measure the influence of ENSO on the predictability limit for both atmospheric and oceanic variable *** spatial distribution of the predictability limit induced by ENSO is similar to that arising from the initial conditions calculated by the NLLE *** similarity supports ENSO as the major predictable signal for weather and climate *** addition,a ratio of predictability limit(RPL)calculated by the CNLLE method to that calculated by the NLLE method was *** RPL larger than 1 indicates that the external forcings can significantly benefit the long-term predictability *** instance,ENSO can effectively extend the predictability limit arising from the initial conditions of sea surface temperature over the tropical Indian Ocean by approximately four months,as well as the predictability limit of sea level pressure over the eastern and western Pacific ***,the impact of ENSO on the geopotential height predictability limit is primarily confined to the troposphere.