Understanding the impact of HIV on mpox transmission in the MSM population: A mathematical modeling study

作     者：Andrew Omame Qing Han Sarafa A.Iyaniwura Adeniyi Ebenezer Nicola L.Bragazzi Xiaoying Wang Jude D.Kong Woldegebriel A.Woldegerima 

作者机构：Abdus Salam School of Mathematical SciencesGovernment College UniversityLahorePakistan Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics(LIAM)Department of Mathematics and StatisticsYork UniversityTorontoOntarioCanada Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation Consortium(ACADIC)Canada Theoretical Biology and BiophysicsTheoretical DivisionLos Alamos National LaboratoryLos AlamosNM87545USA Postgraduate School of Public HealthDepartment of Health Sciences(DISSAL)University of Genoa16126GenoaItaly United Nations EducationalScientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)Health Anthropology Biosphere and Healing SystemsUniversity of Genoa16126GenoaItaly Department of Food and DrugsUniversity of Parma43125ParmaItaly Department of MathematicsTrent University PeterboroughOntarioCanada Artificial Intelligence&Mathematical Modeling Lab(AIMM Lab)Dalla Lana School of Public HealthUniversity of Toronto155 College St Room 500TorontoONM5T 3M7Canada Department of MathematicsUniversity of TorontoOntarioCanada Global South Artificial Intelligence for Pandemic and Epidemic Preparedness and Response Network(AI4PEP)Canada Department of MathematicsFederal University of TechnologyOwerriNigeria 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2024年第9卷第4期

页      面：1117-1137页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：funded by the Canadian Institute for Health Research(CIHR)under the Mpox and other zoonotic threats Team Grant(FRN.187246) financial support from the NSERC Discovery Grant(Appl No.:RGPIN-2023-05100) support from IDRC(Grant No.109981) support from NSERC Discovery Grant(Grant No.RGPIN-2022-04559),NSERC Discovery Launch Supplement(Grant No:DGECR-2022-00454) New Frontier in Research Fund-Exploratory(Grant No.NFRFE-2021-00879) 

主　　题：HIV-mpox co-infection Infectious disease modeling Invasion reproduction number Control reproduction number sensitivity analysis MSM 

摘      要：The recent mpox outbreak(in 2022e2023)has different clinical and epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks of the *** this outbreak,sexual contact was believed to be the primary transmission route of the *** addition,the community of men having sex with men(MSM)was disproportionately affected by the *** population is also disproportionately affected by HIV *** that both diseases can be transmitted sexually,the endemicity of HIV,and the high sexual behavior associated with the MSM community,it is essential to understand the effect of the two diseases spreading simultaneously in an MSM ***,we aim to understand the potential effects of HIV on an mpox outbreak in the MSM *** develop a mechanistic mathematical model of HIV and mpox *** model incorporates the dynamics of both diseases and considers HIV treatment with antiretroviral therapy(ART).In addition,we consider a potential scenario where HIV infection increases susceptibility to mpox,and investigate the potential impact of this mechanism on mpox *** analysis shows that HIV can facilitate the spread of mpox in an MSM population,and that HIV treatment with ART may not be sufficient to control the spread of mpox in the ***,we showed that a moderate use of condoms or reduction in sexual contact in the population combined with ART is beneficial in controlling mpox *** on our analysis,it is evident that effective control of HIV,specifically through substantial ART use,moderate condom compliance,and reduction in sexual contact,is imperative for curtailing the transmission of mpox in an MSM population and mitigating the compounding impact of these intertwined epidemics.