Will the State-owned Capital Transfer Policy Enhance the Sustainability of the Urban Employee Basic Pension Insurance Fund in China?

作     者：Jia Wang Huan Liu Mei Li Han Li Jia Wang;Huan Liu;Mei Li;Han Li

作者机构：School of EconomicsXiamen UniversityChina School of Economics and ManagementNanjing Agricultural UniversityChina School of Economics and ManagementWuhan UniversityChina 

出 版 物：《China & World Economy》 (中国与世界经济（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2024年第32卷第3期

页      面：98-129页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 1204[管理学-公共管理] 0201[经济学-理论经济学] 020204[经济学-金融学（含∶保险学）] 120404[管理学-社会保障] 

基　　金：supported financially by the National Social ScienceFund of China(No.21CZZ028) 

主　　题：burden of enterprise social security contributions delayed retirement policy state-owned capital transfer policy sustainability of basic pension insurance fund 

摘      要：To analyze the efect of the state-owned capital transfer policy on the sustainability of China s urban employee basic pension insurance fund(CUEBPIF),this study develops an actuarial model for pension *** results reveal the following:(i)Without policy intervention,the CUEBPIF would face a deficit in 2027 and a cumulative shortfall of RMB207.44 trillion by 2050,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies for the CUEBPIF in the total fiscal expenditure would increase to 12.86 percent in 2050.(i)Based on a delayed retirement policy,the transfer of 10 percent of state-owned capital can delay the onset of the fund deficit by 6 years,and the accumulated shortfall in 2050 would fall to RMB39.42 trillion,and the proportion of fiscal subsidies would decrease by I1.77 percentage points.(ii)The state-owned capital transfer policy can improve the sustainability of the CUEBPIF and reduce the burden of enterprise social security contributions when the transfer ratio increases to 20 percent.