Potential effects of automated driving on vehicle travel demand: A comparison of three case cities

作     者：Jingchen Dai Ruimin Li Zhiyong Liu Jingchen Dai;Ruimin Li;Zhiyong Liu

作者机构：School of Civil EngineeringTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Hang Lung Center for Real EstateTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China School of Traffic and TransportationBeijing Jiaotong UniversityBeijing 100044China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering(English Edition)》 (交通运输工程学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2024年第11卷第2期

页      面：348-361页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 082303[工学-交通运输规划与管理] 082302[工学-交通信息工程及控制] 0823[工学-交通运输工程] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2019YFB1600100) the Tsinghua University-Toyota Research Center Project(TT2019-05) National Natural Science Foundation of China(52302383) 

主　　题：Automated vehicles Vehicle kilometers traveled Aging population Travel behavior Natural decline hypothesis 

摘      要：Automated vehicles(AVs)hold the potential to reduce road accidents,mitigate traffic congestion,and improve travel ***,the possible countervailing impacts from the changes in underserved populations’vehicle travel demand tend to be *** determine the vehicle travel demand changes that resulted from underserved populations aged between 6 and 80,this paper explores the latent effect of AVs on vehicle kilometers traveled(VKT)in a fully AV environment using person trip survey data from the cities of Sanya,Shijiazhuang,and Shenzhen in *** paper uses the natural decline hypothesis of travel demand and proposes a regression model to investigate the difference among the cities’latent vehicle travel *** show that the average VKT of the overall population in Sanya,Shijiazhuang,and Shenzhen increased by 33.4%,47.0%,and46.8%,*** analysis of the regression model confirms that the current travel behavior of individuals can affect the degree of increase in their average *** AVs into public transport,increasing the acceptance of automated shared mobility options,transforming road space use type,and prototyping AV designs with various features and needs are potential methods to cope with the countervailing *** total VKT of the overall population increased by approximately 10%-25%depending on the *** conclusions of this paper provide informative insights into the evaluation of VKT for underserved populations and contribute to the deployment of AVs to address equity and inclusion issues.