Mathematical assessment of the roles of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2

作     者：Binod Pant Abba B.Gumel 

作者机构：Department of MathematicsUniversity of MarylandCollege ParkMD20742USA Department of Mathematics and Applied MathematicsUniversity of PretoriaPretoria0002South Africa 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2024年第9卷第3期

页      面：828-874页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0701[理学-数学] 070101[理学-基础数学] 

基　　金：ABG acknowledges the support,in part,of the National Science Foundation(Grant Number:DMS-2052363 transferred to DMS-2330801) 

主　　题：COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 Heterogeneous model Reproduction number Herd immunity 

摘      要：The COVID-19 pandemic,caused by SARS-CoV-2,disproportionately affected certain segments of society,particularly the elderly population(which suffered the brunt of the burden of the pandemic in terms of severity of the disease,hospitalization,and death).This study presents a generalized multigroup model,with m heterogeneous sub-populations,to assess the population-level impact of age heterogeneity and vaccination on the transmission dynamics and control of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the United *** analysis of the model for the homogeneous case(i.e.,the model with m=1)reveal that its disease-free equilibrium is globally-asymptotically stable for two special cases(with perfect vaccine efficacy or negligible disease-induced mortality)whenever the associated reproduction number is less than *** model has a unique and globally-asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium,for special a case,when the associated reproduction threshold exceeds *** homogeneous model was fitted using the observed cumulative mortality data for the United States during three distinct waves(Waves A(October 17,2020 to April 5,2021),B(July 9,2021 to November 7,2021)and C(January 1,2022 to May 7,2022))chosen to align with time periods when the Alpha,Delta and Omicron were,respectively,the predominant variants in the United *** calibrated model was used to derive a theoretical expression for achieving vaccine-derived herd immunity(needed to eliminate the disease in the United States).It was shown that,using the one-group homogeneous model,vaccine-derived herd immunity is not attainable during Wave C of the pandemic in the United States,regardless of the coverage level of the fully-vaccinated *** sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the parameters of the model that have the most influence on the disease dynamics and *** analyses reveal that control and mitigation strategies that may be very effective during one wave may not be so very effecti