The risk of mpox importation and subsequent outbreak potential in Chinese mainland: a retrospective statistical modelling study

作     者：Xiaowei Deng Yuyang Tian Junyi Zoul Juan Yang Kaiyuan Sun Hongjie Yu Xiaowei Deng;Yuyang Tian;Junyi Zou;Juan Yang;Kaiyuan Sun;Hongjie Yu

作者机构：School of Public HealthKey Laboratory of Public Health SafetyMinistry of EducationFudan UniversityShanghai 200032China Division of International Epidemiology and Population StudiesFogarty International CenterNational Institutes of HealthBethesdaMDUSA 

出 版 物：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》 (贫困所致传染病（英文）)

年 卷 期：2024年第13卷第1期

页      面：63-73页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This study was supported by grants from Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82130093) 

主　　题：Mpox(Monkeypox) Importation risk International air travel Statistical modelling Men who have sex with men 

摘      要：Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox s importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese *** We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from *** and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation *** constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine *** we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population *** We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations *** the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain *** a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to95% with over six *** Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations ***,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic *** could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.