Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks;an application to COVID-19

作     者：Mohamed Ladib Aziz Ouhinou Abdul-Aziz Yakubu 

作者机构：University of Sultan Moulay SlimaneFaculty of Sciences and TechniquesTeam of Mathematics and InteractionsBéni-MellalMorocco Howard UniversityDept MathWashingtonDC20059USA 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2024年第9卷第2期

页      面：329-353页

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

主　　题：Mathematical modeling Infectious diseases Discrete systems Disease-age structured populations Contact tracing Effective reproduction number COVID-19 

摘      要：We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effect of contact tracing on containing epidemic outbreaks and slowing down the spread of transmissible *** propose a discrete-time epidemic model structured by disease-age which includes general features of contact *** model is fitted to data reported for the early spread of COVID-19 in South Korea,Brazil,and *** calibrated values for the contact tracing parameters reflect the order pattern observed in its performance intensity within the three *** the fitted values,we estimate the effective reproduction number R_(e)and investigate its responses to varied control scenarios of contact *** the positivity of solutions,and a stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium are provided.