Predicting utility of a model for end stage liver disease in alcoholic liver disease

作     者：Aspasia S Soultati Spyridon P Dourakis Alexandra Alexopoulou Melanie Deutsch Larissa Vasilieva Athanasios J Archimandritis 

作者机构：2nd Department of Internal Medicine University of Athens Medical SchoolHippokration General Hospital114 Vas Sofias AvenuesAthens 11527Greece 

出 版 物：《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 (世界胃肠病学杂志（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2006年第12卷第25期

页      面：4020-4025页

核心收录：

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

主　　题：Alcoholic liver disease Alcoholic hepatitis Maddrey discriminant function score Model for end-stage liver disease score 

摘      要：AIM： To validate the statistic utility of both the Maddrey Discriminant Function score and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease as predictors of short term （30 d and 90 d） mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis and to assess prognostic factors among clinical characteristics and laboratory variables of patients with alcoholic hepatitis. METHODS： Thirty-four patients with the diagnosis of alcoholic hepatitis admitted to Hippokration University Hospital of Athens from 2000 to 2005 were assessed in the current retrospective study and a statistical analysis was conducted. RESULTS： 30- and 90-d mortality rates were reported at 5.9% （2/34） and 14.7% （5/34）, respectively. Significant correlation was demonstrated for the Model for End- Stage Liver Disease （P30 = 0.094, P90 = 0.046） and the Maddrey Discriminant Function score （P30 = 0.033, P90 = 0.038） with 30- and 90-d mortality whereas a significant association was also established for alanine aminotrans- ferase （P = 0.057）, fibrin degradation products （P = 0.048） and C-reactive protein （P = 0.067） with 90-d mortality. For 30-d mortality the Area Under the Curve was 0.969 （95%CI： 0.902-1.036, P = 0.028） for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and 0.984 （95%CI： 0.942-1.027, P = 0.023） for the Maddrey Discriminant Function score with the optimal cut off point of 30.5 （sensitivity 1, specificity 0.937） and 108.68 （sensitivity 1, specificity 0.969）, respectively. Accordingly, for 90-d mortality the Area Under the Curve was 0.762 （95%CI： 0.559-0.965, P = 0.065） for the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score and 0.752 （95%CI： 0.465-1.038, P = 0.076） for the Maddrey Discriminant Function score with the optimal cut off point of 19 （sensitivity 0.6, specificity 0.6） and 92 （sensitivity 0.6, specificity 0.946）, respectively. The observed Kaplan Meier survival rates for different score-categories were compared with logrank tests and higher score values were correlated with a lower survival. CONCLUSION： Equivale