Analysis of the Meteorological Conditions for Outbreak of Blue-green Algae in Hongze Lake

作     者：陈翔 禹继华 刘杰 许波 龚庆 徐园园 王正科 邵正艳 徐进亚 

作者机构：江苏省洪泽县气象局江苏洪泽223100 江苏省淮安市气象局江苏淮安223200 江苏省江都市气象局江苏江都225200 江苏省灌南县气象局江苏灌南222500 江苏省淮阴区气象局江苏淮阴223000 

出 版 物：《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 (气象与环境研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2010年第1卷第4期

页      面：106-108,112页

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

主　　题：Blue-green algae Hongze Lake Outbreak Meteorological conditions 

摘      要：Based on the data of 18 cases during the past 30 years from 1978 to 2007,the major meteorological conditions for outbreak of blue-green alga in Hongze Lake were *** results showed that the main meteorological conditions that affected the production and outbreak of blue-green alga were unusual high monthly average temperature,less precipitation and more sunshine hours in ten *** the selection of 1 or 0 factors on the values of above meteorological conditions over the years,if the conditions were accorded with the outbreak of blue-green alga,the factor was signed as 1,or it would be signed as 0;if there was outbreak of blue-green alga within ten days,it was signed as 1,or it would be signed as 0;crossing interrelated and integrated prediction method was adopted to establish the prediction equation for outbreak of blue-green alga,the historical fitting rate was 87.5%,and the predicting accuracy rate in 2008-2009 was 87.5%.In addition to meteorological conditions,outbreak of blue-green alga was also influenced by industrial pollutions,etc.,which should be considered in the forecasting procedures.