Features of the new climate normal 1991-2020 and possible influences on climate monitoring and prediction in China
作者机构：College of Electronic and Information EngineeringChangshu Institute of TechnologySuzhou 215100China Deparment of Amospheric and Oceanic Sciences&Institute of Atmospheric SciencesFudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Hebei Climate Center/China Meteorological Administration Xiong'an Atmospheric Boundary Layer Key Laboratory/Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei ProvinceShijiazhuang 050021China Laboratory for Climate StudiesNational Climate Research Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 10o081China
出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2023年第14卷第6期
页 面：930-940页
核心收录：
学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学]
基 金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Project (42130610,42075057,41875100,and 42275050) the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFE0136000) the Innovative Team of the Intelligent Forecast of the Extended Range Important Weather Process (Hebei Meteorological Bureau official letter14)
主 题：Climate normal Temperature Precipitation Extreme climate event Prediction
摘 要：An update on the climate norms each decade is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO)partly to keep pace with conditions as climate changes over *** accordance with such update,this study documents the features of the new climate normal defined for 1991-2020 and its impacts on climate monitoring and prediction in *** on-site observation and model prediction datasets,our analysis reveals that the new normal of national average precipitation of China during winter and summer is respectively 3.0 and 10.8 mm higher than that of the period *** a result,precipitation observations during 1961-2020 consistently fall below the new *** adjustment of thresholds for precipitation extremes with new climate normals results in a decrease of extreme precipitation occurrence by 0.2-0.8 d on average over the winter and summer seasons during ***,the application of new climate normals induces more pronounced negative temperature anomalies across most areas of *** adjustments of extreme temperature thresholds have led to an increased occurrence of extremely cold days by 1-2 d on average over 1961-2020,while the frequency of extremely hot days decreases by more than 1.4 ***,it is implied that with the development of global warming,the baselines for temperature and precipitation are *** application of the new climate normal may result in the omission of relative threshold based extreme events,promoting increased focus on climate risk reduction ***,the average anomaly sign consistency rates(Pcs)of precipitation and temperature anomaly predictions,relative to the new normal and produced by the Beijing Climate Center,are consistently lower than those relative to the old *** decrease in Pcs implies new challenges for climate prediction,especially for temperature prediction.
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