气候变化情景下中国因高温造成的劳动生产力损失预估

作     者：程亮亮 谷魁英 赵亮 王会滨 纪思翰 刘钊 黄建斌 陈艺丹 高学杰 徐影 王灿 罗勇 蔡闻佳 宫鹏 梁万年 黄存瑞 Liangliang Cheng;Kuiying Gu;Liang Zhao;Huibin Wang;John S.Ji;Zhao Liu;Jianbin Huang;Yidan Chen;Xuejie Gao;Ying Xu;Can Wang;Yong Luo;Wenjia Cai;Peng Gong;Wannian Liang;Cunrui Huang

作者机构：School of Public HealthSun Yat-sen UniversityGuangzhou 510080China Vanke School of Public HealthTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmosphere Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Linkong Economics and ManagementBeijing Institute of Economics and ManagementBeijing 100102China Beijing Yanshan Earth Critical Zone National Research StationUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 101408China College of Resources and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution ControlSchool of EnvironmentTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China College of Earth and Planetary SciencesUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100084China Climate Change Research CentreInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Department of Earth System ScienceMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Department of Earth Sciences and Department of GeographyUniversity of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Institute of Healthy Chin1Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China 

出 版 物：《Science Bulletin》 (科学通报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2023年第68卷第22期

页      面：2827-2837,M0006页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 07[理学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 08[工学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0836[工学-生物工程] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key Research&Development Program of China(2018YFA0606200) Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen of China(SZSM202111001) Wellcome Trust(209734/Z/17/Z)。 

主　　题：Climate change Heat stress Labor Work hours lost Occupational health 

摘      要：气候变化背景下,高温会影响职业人群的工作效率并造成劳动生产力损失.本研究基于区域气候模式并采用本土化的暴露-反应函数,预估了未来气候变化情景下中国因高温造成的劳动时间损失.研究发现,与基线期的213亿小时高温相关劳动时间损失相比,到21世纪末在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,损失将分别增加-17.8%、10.8%及121.1%.损失主要集中在华南、华中和华东地区,其中广东与河南将占到全国总损失的四分之一.因为这些区域的温度将更高、人口更密集、户外工作者在总人群中的比例较大.与RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景相比,若能实现1.5℃温控目标,将分别能够避免11.8%、33.7%和53.9%的劳动时间损失,相当于避免了全中国21世纪中叶的0.1%、0.6%及1.4%的年均GDP损失.本研究显示未来气候变化会给中国造成严重的热相关劳动生产力损失,并强调亟需采取因地制宜的气候减缓及适应策略以保护职业人群健康.本研究对其他与中国相似的发展中国家同样具有重要意义.