Probabilistic description of extreme oscillations and reliability analysis in rolling motion under stochastic excitation

作     者：ZHAO Dan LI YongGe XU Yong LIU Qi KURTHS Jürgen 

作者机构：School of Mathematics and StatisticsNorthwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China MOE Key Laboratory for Complexity Science in AerospaceNorthwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710072China Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchPotsdam 14412Germany Department of PhysicsHumboldt University BerlinBerlin 12489Germany 

出 版 物：《中国科学:技术科学英文版》 (Science China: Technological Sciences)

年 卷 期：2023年第66卷第9期

页      面：2586-2596页

核心收录：

学科分类：0711[理学-系统科学] 07[理学] 0701[理学-数学] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12072264) the Key International(Regional) Joint Research Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12120101002) the support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.12272296) the Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing,China(Grant No.cstc2021jcyj-msxmX0738) the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province,China(Grant No.2023A1515012329)。 

主　　题：rolling motion colored noise extreme oscillations reliability probabilistic decomposition-synthesis method 

摘      要：Large-amplitude rolling motions, also regarded as extreme oscillations, are a great threat to marine navigation, which may lead to capsizing in ship motion. Therefore, it is important to quantify extreme oscillations, assess reliability of ship systems, and establish a suitable indicator to characterize extreme oscillations in ship systems. In this work, extreme events are investigated in a ship model considering a complex ocean environment, described by a single-degree-of-freedom nonlinear system with stochastic harmonic excitation and colored Gaussian noise. The stationary probability density function(PDF) of the system is derived through a probabilistic decomposition-synthesis method. Based on this, we infer the classical damage rate of the system. Furthermore, a new indicator, independent of the PDF, is proposed to quantify the damage related only to the fourth-order moment of the system and the threshold for extreme events. It is more universal and easier to determine as compared with the classical damage rate. A large damping ratio, a large noise intensity, or a short correlation time can reduce the damage rate and the value of the indicator.These findings provide new insights and theoretical guidance to avoid extreme oscillations and assess the reliability of practical ship movements.