Development and validation of a nomogram to predict allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation
作者机构：Department of Liver SurgeryRenji HospitalShanghai Jiaotong University School of MedicineNo.160 Pujian RoadPudong New DistrictShanghai 200128China Department of Liver TransplantationSun Yet-Sen Memorial HospitalSun Yat-Sen UniversityNo.107 Yanjiang West RoadGuangzhou 510080China Clinical Center for InvestigationRenji HospitalShanghai Jiaotong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina Department of AnesthesiologyRenji HospitalShanghai Jiaotong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina
出 版 物：《World Journal of Pediatrics》 (世界儿科杂志（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2024年第20卷第3期
页 面：239-249页
核心收录：
学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100210[医学-外科学(含：普外、骨外、泌尿外、胸心外、神外、整形、烧伤、野战外)] 10[医学]
基 金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant number 81700570)
主 题：Allograft survival Nomogram Pediatric liver transplantation
摘 要：Background Liver transplantation is the main treatment for cholestatic liver disease and some metabolic liver diseases in ***,no accurate prediction model to determine the survival probability of grafts prior to surgery *** study aimed to develop an effective prognostic model for allograft survival after pediatric liver *** This retrospective cohort study included 2032 patients who underwent pediatric liver transplantation between January 1,2006,and January 1,2020.A nomogram was developed using Cox regression and validated based on bootstrap *** and discriminatory accuracies were determined using the concordance index and visualized using calibration curves;net benefits were calculated for model *** online Shiny application was developed for easy access to the *** Multivariable analysis demonstrated that preoperative diagnosis,recipient age,body weight,graft type,preoperative total bilirubin,interleukin-1β,portal venous blood flow direction,spleen thickness,and the presence of heart disease and cholangitis were independent factors for survival,all of which were selected in the *** of the nomogram indicated that the 1-,3-,and 5-year predicted survival rates agreed with the actual survival *** concordance indices for graft survival at 1,3,and 5 years were 0.776,0.757,and 0.753,respectively,which were significantly higher than those of the Pediatric End-Stage Liver Disease and Child-Pugh scoring *** allograft dysfunction risk of a recipient could be easily predicted using the following URL:https://***/ASPELT/l Conclusion The allograft survival after pediatric liver transplantation(ASPELT)score model can effectively predict the graft survival rate after liver transplantation in children,providing a simple and convenient evaluation method for clinicians and patients.
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