The Effects of Climate Change on the Planting Boundary and Potential Yield for Different Rice Cropping Systems in Southern China

作     者：YE Qing YANG Xiao-guang LIU Zhi-juan DAI Shu-wei LI Yong XIE Wen-juan CHEN Fu 

作者机构：Forestry Institute Jiangxi Agricultural University College of Resources and Environmental Sciences China Agricultural University School of Natural Resources University of Nebraska-Lincoln Lincoln NE 68583 USA Guizhou Key Laboratory of Mountainous Climate and Resources College of Agriculture and Biotechnology China Agricultural University 

出 版 物：《Journal of Integrative Agriculture》 (农业科学学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2014年第13卷第7期

页      面：1546-1554页

核心收录：

学科分类：090101[农学-作物栽培学与耕作学] 09[农学] 0901[农学-作物学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2010CB951502) the Special Fund for Meteorology-Scientific Research in the Public Interest,China(GYHY201106020) 

主　　题：climate change potential yield rice cropping system planting boundary 

摘      要：Based on climate data from 254 meteorological stations, this study estimated the effects of climate change on rice planting boundaries and potential yields in the southern China during 1951-2010. The results indicated a signiifcant northward shift and westward expansion of northern boundaries for rice planting in the southern China. Compared with the period of 1951-1980, the average temperature during rice growing season in the period of 1981-2010 increased by 0.4＆#176;C, and the northern planting boundaries for single rice cropping system （SRCS）, early triple cropping rice system （ETCRS）, medium triple cropping rice system （MTCRS）, and late triple cropping rice system （LTCRS） moved northward by 10, 30, 52 and 66 km, respectively. In addition, compared with the period of 1951-1980, the suitable planting area for SRCS was reduced by 11%during the period of 1981-2010. However, the suitable planting areas for other rice cropping systems increased, with the increasing amplitude of 3, 8, and 10%for ETCRS, MTCRS and LTCRS, respectively. In general, the light and temperature potential productivity of rice decreased by 2.5%. Without considering the change of rice cultivars, the northern planting boundaries for different rice cropping systems showed a northward shift tendency. Climate change resulted in decrease of per unit area yield for SRCS and the annual average yields of ETCRS and LTCRS. Nevertheless, the overall rice production in the entire research area showed a decreasing trend even with the increasing trend of annual average yield for MTCRS.