Fitness of Four-Parameter Beta Distribution Function for Forecasting Gold Reserve and Its Production Lifespan in Ghana
Fitness of Four-Parameter Beta Distribution Function for Forecasting Gold Reserve and Its Production Lifespan in Ghana作者机构：Research and Statistics Unit Minerals Commission of Ghana Accra Ghana Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of Mines and Technology Tarkwa Ghana Department of Economics Catholic University of Ghana Sunyani Ghana
出 版 物：《Open Journal of Statistics》 (统计学期刊（英文）)
年 卷 期：2023年第13卷第4期
页 面：567-593页
学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学]
主 题：Gold Reserve Four-Parameter Beta Distribution Function Goodness of Fit Statistics
摘 要：Ghana, renowned for its abundant gold reserves, plays a significant role in the global mining industry. Effective management and accurate forecasting of these reserves are vital for sustainable resource utilization and economic planning. Forecasting gold reserves and estimating their production lifespan are complex tasks that require robust statistical models capable of capturing the underlying dynamics of gold deposit accumulation and extraction. To this end, the four-parameter Beta distribution function emerges as a promising candidate due to its flexibility and ability to handle non-negative data. This research aims to investigate the fitness and applicability of the four-parameter Beta distribution function for forecasting Ghana’s gold reserves and estimating the production lifespan of this precious resource. The empirical paper relied mainly on quarterly secondary datasets on gold reserve between the years 2009 and 2022 secured from the Minerals Commission of Ghana, Accra. Several known statistical distributions including Beta, Weibull, Normal, Logistic and Gamma were explored with Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and evaluated using model selection criteria as AIC and BIC. Goodness of Fits were evaluated using Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test (K-S), Cramer-Von Mises Statistic and Anderson-Darling Statistic. Based on the analysis conducted, the four-parameter Beta distribution provided the best fit for gold reserve in Ghana. At a 99.9% confidence level and considering the current annual average gold production estimate of 3,700,031.248 to 4,302,647.888 ounces, the projected lifespan of gold production in Ghana extends to the year 1,953,765. This astounding estimate suggests that the country’s gold reserves are expected to sustain production for an extended period, providing a critical resource for economic development and supporting the mining industry well into the distant future.
维普期刊数据库