Future Changes in the Relationship Between the South and East Asian Summer Monsoons in CMIP6 Models

作     者：陈虹静 杨崧 魏维 CHEN Hong-jing;Song YANG;WEI Wei

作者机构：School of Atmospheric SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)ZhuhaiGuangdong 519000 China Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster StudiesSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiGuangdong 519082 China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 (热带气象学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2023年第29卷第2期

页      面：191-203页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：Guangdong Major Project of Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2020B0301030004) National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975074) Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515010908) Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies(2020B1212060025) Innovation Group Project of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)(311021001)。 

主　　题：CMIP6 global warming South Asian monsoon East Asian monsoon future projection 

摘      要：The future changes in the relationship between the South Asian summer monsoon(SASM)and the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)are investigated by using the high-emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5)experiments from 26 coupled models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).Six models,selected based on their best performance in simulating the upper-and lower-level pathways related to the SASM-EASM teleconnection in the historical run,can capture the positive relationship between the SASM and the rainfall over northern China.In the future scenario,the upper-level teleconnection wave pattern connecting the SASM and the EASM exhibits a significant weakening trend,due to the rainfall anomalies decrease over the northern Indian Peninsula in the future.At the lower level,the western North Pacific anticyclone is projected to strengthen in the warming climate.The positive(negative)rainfall anomalies associated with positive(negative)SASM rainfall anomalies are anticipated to extend southward from northern China to the Yangtze-Huai River valley,the Korea Peninsula,and southern Japan.The connection in the lower-level pathway may be strengthened in the future.