Housing Boom,Dutch Disease,and the Decline in China's Manufacturing Exports

作     者：Zhuqing Liu Jiadong Tong Zhuqing Liu;Jiadong Tong

作者机构：School of EconomicsFujian Normal UniversityChina School of EconomicsNankai UniversityChina 

出 版 物：《China & World Economy》 (中国与世界经济（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2023年第31卷第3期

页      面：205-229页

核心收录：

学科分类：02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 0201[经济学-理论经济学] 

基　　金：supported financially by the Major Program of the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.20ZDA052)and the National Social Science Foundation of China(No.22BJY163). 

主　　题：Dutch disease housing boom manufacturing export resource movement effect spendingeffect 

摘      要：Drawing on Dutch disease theory,we assess how the recent housing boom has contributed to a decline in China s manufacturing exports.Using Chinese city and enterprise panel data from 2004 to 2013,our analysis reveals that Dutch disease indeed exists and that the housing price increase has played a very important role in affecting China s manufacturing exports through two key channels:resource movement effect and spending effect.Specifically,this paper found that:(i)the housing price increase hindered labor flowing into China s manufacturing industry(resource movement efect)and caused higher inflation(spending effect);(ii)the housing boom clearly impeded China s manufacturing exports,especially after the outbreak of the global economic crisis in 2008;(ii)the impacts of the housing price increase on China s manufacturing exports were heterogenous,and were more significant for labor-intensive manufacturing businesses,businesses that were foreign owned,less R&D intensive,or located in the central and western regions.