Climate change risk assessment for ski areas in China
作者机构：Heihe Remote Sensing Experimental Research StationKey Laboratory of Remote Sensing of Gansu ProvinceNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth SystemResources and EnvironmentInstitute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Resource and EnvironmentUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China College of Geography and Environment ScienceNorthwest Normal UniversityLanzhou 730070China
出 版 物：《Advances in Climate Change Research》 (气候变化研究进展（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2023年第14卷第2期
页 面：300-312页
核心收录：
学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学]
基 金：the National Nature Science Foundation of China(42125604,41690143,and 42201159) the open fund from the State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science(SKLCS-OP-2021-01)
主 题：Climate risk Ski tourism Sustainability Machine learning China
摘 要：The successful bid for the 2022 Winter Olympics has provided a strong impetus for the development of China s ski *** areas have sprung up throughout the country,even in the low latitudes south of 30°***,ski tourism is extremely susceptible to weather and climate *** the context of global warming,it has become important to assess the climate reliability of ski ***,this study demonstrates a novel approach to assessing the ski tourism sector s climate risks,which can be easily applied in other markets catering to the same *** the random forest regression model based on climate projections and survey data,we projected the ski season start dates,end dates and season lengths of 694 existing ski areas in China under three emission scenarios(RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).Climate projections,including air temperature,snowfall,rainfall,wind speed and air humidity,were the ensemble means from five climate *** indicate that ski areas in China may have later start dates,earlier end dates and shorter ski seasons before *** the 2090s,under RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,20%(139),28%(195)and 35%(245)of ski areas are projected to be at high climate risk(ski season less than 60 d),respectively,while 28%(197),23%(157)and 8%(56)of ski areas are at low climate risk(ski season with at least 100 d),*** climate risks are ranked from the highest to lowest in East,Central,Southwest,North,Northwest and Northeast ***,the ski tourism sector in the latitudes south of 40°N is exposed to much higher climate risks than in areas north of 40°***,climatic reliability should be carefully considered before establishing or expanding ski areas to avoid unnecessary resource waste and ecological damage,as well as to promote sustainable development in mountain areas.
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