Propagation characteristics from meteorological drought to agricultural drought over the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

作     者：BAI Miao LI Zhanling HUO Pengying WANG Jiawen LI Zhanjie BAI Miao;LI Zhanling;HUO Pengying;WANG Jiawen;LI Zhanjie

作者机构：School of Water Resources and EnvironmentChina University of GeosciencesBeijing 100083China MOE Key Laboratory of Groundwater Circulation and Environmental EvolutionBeijing 100083China State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic EngineeringNanjing Hydraulic Research InstituteNanjing 210029China College of Water SciencesBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Arid Land》 (干旱区科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2023年第15卷第5期

页      面：523-544页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 09[农学] 0904[农学-植物保护] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41101038) the Belt and Road Special Foundation of the State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering (2021nkms03) 

主　　题：meteorological drought agricultural drought drought propagation time drought propagation probability Copula function interval conditional probability Heihe River Basin 

摘      要：In the context of global warming,drought events occur *** order to better understanding the process and mechanism of drought occurrence and evolution,scholars have dedicated much attention on drought propagation,mainly focusing on drought propagation time and propagation ***,there are relatively few studies on the sensitivities of drought propagation to seasons and drought ***,we took the Heihe River Basin(HRB)of Northwest China as the case study area to quantify the propagation time and propagation probability from meteorological drought to agricultural drought during the period of 1981–2020,and subsequently explore their sensitivities to seasons(irrigation and non-irrigation seasons)and drought *** correlation coefficient method and Copula-based interval conditional probability model were employed to determine the drought propagation time and propagation *** results determined the average drought propagation time as 8 months in the whole basin,which was reduced by 2 months(i.e.,6 months)on average during the irrigation season and prolonged by 2 months(i.e.,10 months)during the non-irrigation *** probability was sensitive to both seasons and drought levels,and the sensitivities had noticeable spatial differences in the whole *** propagation probability of agricultural drought at different levels generally increased with the meteorological drought levels for the upstream,midstream,and southern downstream regions of the *** agricultural droughts were more likely to be triggered during the irrigation season,while severer agricultural droughts were occurred mostly during the non-irrigation *** research results are helpful to understand the characteristics of drought propagation and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of *** study is of great significance for the rational planning of local water resources and maintaining good ecological environmen