Future meteorological drought conditions in southwestern Iran based on the NEX-GDDP climate dataset

作     者：Sakine KOOHI Hadi RAMEZANI ETEDALI Sakine KOOHI;Hadi RAMEZANI ETEDALI

作者机构：Department of Water EngineeringFaculty of Agriculture and Natural ResourcesImam Khomeini International UniversityQazvin 96818Iran 

出 版 物：《Journal of Arid Land》 (干旱区科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2023年第15卷第4期

页      面：377-392页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：Ames Research Center  ARC 

主　　题：climate change meteorological drought Global Climate Models(GCMs) Standard Precipitation Index(SPI) Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP) southwestern Iran 

摘      要：Investigation of the climate change effects on drought is required to develop management strategies for minimizing adverse social and economic ***,studying the future meteorological drought conditions at a local scale is *** this study,we assessed the efficiency of seven downscaled Global Climate Models(GCMs)provided by the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP),and investigated the impacts of climate change on future meteorological drought using Standard Precipitation Index(SPI)in the Karoun River Basin(KRB)of southwestern Iran under two Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emission scenarios,i.e.,RCP4.5 and *** results demonstrated that SPI estimated based on the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model version 3(MRI-CGCM3)is consistent with the one estimated by synoptic stations during the historical period(1990-2005).The root mean square error(RMSE)value is less than 0.75 in 77%of the synoptic *** have high uncertainty in most synoptic stations except those located in the *** the average of a few GCMs to improve performance and reduce uncertainty is suggested by the *** results revealed that with the areas affected by wetness decreasing in the KRB,drought frequency in the North KRB is likely to increase at the end of the 21st century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 *** the seasonal scale,the decreasing trend for SPI in spring,summer,and winter shows a drought tendency in this *** climate-induced drought hazard can have vast consequences,especially in agriculture and rural ***,an increasing trend in drought during the growing seasons under RCP scenarios is vital for water managers and farmers to adopt strategies to reduce the *** results of this study are of great value for formulating sustainable water resources management plans affected by climate change.