Analysis on the Cause and Forecast Deviation of an Extreme Rainstorm in Changsha Urban Area
作者机构：Changsha Meteorological BureauChangsha 410205China Hunan Provincial Weather Modification Leading Group OfficeChangsha 410118China
出 版 物：《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 (气象与环境研究（英文版）)
年 卷 期：2023年第14卷第1期
页 面：50-55,59页
学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学]
主 题：Extreme rainstorm Ground convergence line Unstable energy
摘 要：Using NCEP reanalysis data,high-altitude and ground observation data,numerical model data,satellite and radar data,formation cause and forecast deviation of an extreme rainstorm process in Changsha urban area at night on June 9,2020 were *** results showed that(1)the extreme rainstorm process developed near the surface convergence line,with strong localization,short duration and large hourly rainfall intensity.(2)Under the high temperature and high humidity environment,the low-level cold advection and the hot low-pressure system interacted,and the potential con-vective unstable energy was released,and a strong convective weather was formed.(3)The convergence of water vapor in the lower layer and the strong upward movement provided sufficient water vapor for the *** low-centroid thunderstorm was the main reason for the extreme rainstorm.(4)The forecast deviation of the numerical model to the low-level shear line and the mesoscale convergence line was an important reason for the forecast deviation of the heavy rainfall area.
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