CMIP6 Evaluation and Projection of Precipitation over Northern China:Further Investigation

作     者：Xiaoling YANG Botao ZHOU Ying XU Zhenyu HAN Xiaoling YANG;Botao ZHOU;Ying XU;Zhenyu HAN

作者机构：Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological DisasterMinistry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Jiangxi Vocational and Technical College of Information ApplicationNanchang 330043China National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdmnistrationBeijing 100081China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2023年第40卷第4期

页      面：587-600页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41991285) the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFA0605004) the Program for Distinguished Professors of Jiangsu 

主　　题：CMIP6 ensemble evaluation and projection moisture budget atmospheric circulation 

摘      要：Based on 20 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),this article explored possible reasons for differences in simulation biases and projected changes in precipitation in northern China among the allmodel ensemble(AMME),“highest-rankedmodel ensemble(BMME),and“lowest-rankedmodel ensemble(WMME),from the perspective of atmospheric circulations and moisture *** results show that the BMME and AMME reproduce the East Asian winter circulations better than the *** with the AMME and WMME,the BMME reduces the overestimation of evaporation,thereby improving the simulation of winter *** three ensemble simulated biases for the East Asian summer circulations are generally similar,characterized by a stronger zonal pressure gradient between the mid-latitudes of the North Pacific and East Asia and a northward displacement of the East Asian westerly ***,the simulated vertical moisture advection is improved in the BMME,contributing to the slightly higher performance of the BMME than the AMME and WMME on summer precipitation in North and Northeast *** to the AMME and WMME,the BMME projects larger increases in precipitation in northern China during both seasons by the end of the 21st century under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5-8.5(SSP5-8.5).One of the reasons is that the increase in evaporation projected by the BMME is *** projection of a greater dynamic contribution by the BMME also plays a *** addition,larger changes in the nonlinear components in the BMME projection contribute to a larger increase in winter precipitation in northern China.