Development and validation of a nomogram to predict failure of 14-day negative nucleic acid conversion in adults with non-severe COVID-19 during the Omicron surge: a retrospective multicenter study

作     者：Honglian Gui Zhenglan Zhang Bin Chen Yaoxing Chen Yue Wang Zhuo Long Chuanwu Zhu Yinling Wang Zhujun Cao Qing Xie 

作者机构：Department of Infectious DiseasesRuijin HospitalShanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghaiChina Department of Infectious DiseasesShanghai Pudong HospitalFudan University Pudong Medical CenterShanghaiChina Department of HepatologyWuwei People’s HospitalGansuChina Department of Infectious DiseasesThe Affiliated Infectious Diseases Hospital of Soochow UniversitySuzhouChina Department of Endocrine and Metabolic DiseasesFengcheng Hospital of Fengxian DistrictShanghaiChina 

出 版 物：《Infectious Diseases of Poverty》 (贫困所致传染病（英文）)

年 卷 期：2023年第12卷第1期

页      面：36-46页

核心收录：

学科分类：1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100401[医学-流行病与卫生统计学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.82070604) the Shanghai Municipal Key Clinical Specialty(shslczdzk01103) and the"Chenguang Program"supported by Shanghai Education Development Foundation and Shanghai Municipal Education Commission.The study sponsors were not involved in the study design data collection data analysis and data interpretation 

主　　题：Nomogram Viral shedding time Prediction Omicron variant COVID-19 

摘      要：Background With the variability in emerging data,guidance on the isolation duration for patients with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)due to the Omicron variant is *** study aimed to determine the predictors of prolonged viral RNA shedding in patients with non-severe COVID-19 and construct a nomogram to predict patients at risk of 14-day PCR conversion *** Adult patients with non-severe COVID-19 were enrolled from three hospitals of eastern China in Spring *** shedding time(VST)was defined as either the day of the first positive test or the day of symptom onset,whichever was earlier,to the date of the first of two consecutively negative PCR *** from one hospital(Cohort I,n=2033)were randomly grouped into training and internal validation *** of 14-day PCR conversion failure were identified and a nomogram was developed by multivariable logistic regression using the training *** hospitals(Cohort II,n=1596)were used as an external validation set to measure the performance of this *** Of the 2033 patients from Cohort I,the median VST was 13.0(interquartile range:10.0-16.0)days;716(35.2%)lasted14 *** the training set,increased age[per 10 years,odds ratio(OR)=1.29,95%confidence interval(CI):1.15-1.45,P14 days,whereas full or boosted vaccination(OR=0.63,95%CI:0.42-0.95,P=0.028)and antiviral therapy(OR=0.56,95%CI:0.31-0.96,P=0.040)were protective *** predictors were used to develop a nomogram to predict VST14 days,with an area under the ROC curve(AUC)of 0.73 in the training set(AUC,0.74 in internal validation set;0.76 in external validation set).Conclusions Older age,increasing comorbidities,incomplete vaccinations,and lack of antiviral therapy are risk factors for persistent infection with Omicron variant for14 days.A nomogram based on these predictors could be used a