A Detailed Mathematical Analysis of the Vaccination Model for COVID-19

作     者：Abeer S.Alnahdi Mdi B.Jeelani Hanan A.Wahash Mansour A.Abdulwasaa 

作者机构：Department of Mathematics and StatisticsImam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University(IMSIU)RiyadhSaudi Arabia Department of MathematicsDr.Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada UniversityAurangabadIndia Department of StatisticsTaiz UniversityTaizYemen Department of StatisticsDr.Babasaheb Ambedkar Marathwada UniversityAurangabadIndia 

出 版 物：《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 (工程与科学中的计算机建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2023年第135卷第5期

页      面：1315-1343页

核心收录：

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 1002[医学-临床医学] 1001[医学-基础医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 0701[理学-数学] 10[医学] 

基　　金：supported by the Deanship of Scientific Research Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU) Saudi Arabia Grant No. (21-13-18-069) 

主　　题：COVID-19 Eviews program forecasting ABC fractional derivative Picard-Lindel method Adams-Bashforth technique 

摘      要：This study aims to structure and evaluate a newCOVID-19modelwhich predicts vaccination effect in theKingdom of Saudi Arabia(KSA)under Atangana-Baleanu-Caputo(ABC)fractional *** the statistical aspect,we analyze the collected statistical data of fully vaccinated people from June 01,2021,to February 15,*** we apply the Eviews program to find the best model for predicting the vaccination against this pandemic,based on daily series data from February 16,2022,to April 15,*** results of data analysis show that the appropriate model is autoregressive integratedmoving average ARIMA(1,1,2),and hence,a forecast about the evolution of the COVID-19 vaccination in 60 days is *** theoretical aspect provides equilibrium points,reproduction number R0,and biologically feasible region of the proposed ***,we obtain the existence and uniqueness results by using the Picard-Lindel method and the iterative scheme with the Laplace *** the numerical aspect,we apply the generalized scheme of the Adams-Bashforth technique in order to simulate the fractional ***,numerical simulations are performed dependent on real data of COVID-19 in KSA to show the plots of the effects of the fractional-order operator with the anticipation that the suggested model approximation will be better than that of the established traditional ***,the concerned numerical simulations are compared with the exact real available date given in the statistical aspect.