Study and prediction of the 2022 global monkeypox epidemic

作     者：Fengying Wei Zhihang Peng Zhen Jin Jinjie Wang Ximing Xu Xinyan Zhang Jun Xu Zixiong Ren Yao Bai Xiaoli Wang Bulai Lu Zhaojun Wang Jianguo Xu Senzhong Huang 

作者机构：School of Mathematics and StatisticsFuzhou UniversityFuzhou 350116FujianChina Department of BiostatisticsSchool of Public HealthNanjing Medical UniversityNanjing 211166JiangsuChina Complex Systems Research CenterKey Discipline of Computer Science and Technology of“Double-First-Class”Project of Shanxi ProvinceShanxi UniversityTaiyuan 030006ShanxiChina Nankai Institute of EconomicsBinhai Development InstituteNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Children’s Hospital of Chongqing Medical UniversityChongqing 400010China Jinzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionJinzhou 121000LiaoningChina School of Statistics and Data ScienceNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Xi’an Center for Disease Control and PreventionXi’an 710061ShaanxiChina Beijing Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 100013BeijingChina Suzhou Center for Disease Control and PreventionSuzhou 215004JiangsuChina State Key Laboratory of Communicable Disease Prevention and ControlNational Institute for Communicable Disease Control and PreventionChinese Center for Disease Control and PreventionBeijing 102206China School of Statistics and Data ScienceZhiYing Research Center for Health DataNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China Institute of Public HealthNankai UniversityTianjin 300071China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Biosafety and Biosecurity》 (生物安全和生物安保杂志（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第4卷第2期

页      面：158-162页

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 

基　　金：This study was supported by grants from the Consultancy Project by the Chinese Academy of Engineering(CAE,2022-JB-06) the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2021 J01621) the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61873154) the National Key R&D Program of China(2021ZD0114102) 

主　　题：Monkeypox Epidemic Prediction Tendency 

摘      要：The World Health Organization(WHO)declared monkeypox as a public health emergency of international concern(PHEIC)on July 23,2022,their highest level of *** raised concerns about the management of the global monkeypox outbreak,as well as the scientific analysis and accurate prediction of the future course of the *** study used EpiSIX(an analysis and prediction system for epidemics based on a general SEIR model)to analyze the monkeypox epidemic and to forecast the major tendencies based on data from the USA CDC(https://***)and the WHO(https://***/health-topics/monkeypox).The global outbreak of monkeypox started in the UK on May 2,2022,which marked the beginning of an epidemic *** of October 28,2022,the cumulative number of reported cases worldwide was 77,115,with 36 *** simulations predict that the global monkeypox epidemic will enter a low epidemic status on March 1,2023 with the cumulative number of confirmed cases ranging from 85,000 to 124,000,and the total number of deaths ranging from 60 to *** analysis revealed that the basic reproduction number(R0)of monkeypox virus(MPXV)is near to 3.1 and the percentage of asymptomatic individuals is 13.1%–14.5%,both of which are similar to the data for *** vaccination efficiency against susceptibility(VEs)of individuals who have had monkeypox is~79%,and the vaccination efficiency against infectiousness(VEi)of individuals who have had monkeypox is~76%–82%.The mean incubation period for monkeypox is 8 *** total,94.7%of infected individuals develop symptoms within 20 days and recover within 2 weeks after the confirmation of *** results using EpiSIX showed that ring vaccination was remarkably effective against *** findings confirmed that a 20-day isolation for close contacts is necessary.