Procyclicality of Local Government Debt Financing and Its Theoretical Explanation

作     者：Haiping Si Xiaoge Liu Jian Wei 

作者机构：Center for Economic Research at Shandong UniversityChina National School of Development(NSD)at Peking UniversityChina 

出 版 物：《China Finance and Economic Review》 (中国财政与经济研究（英文）)

年 卷 期：2018年第7卷第4期

页      面：89-109页

学科分类：07[理学] 0701[理学-数学] 070101[理学-基础数学] 

基　　金：The 61st Batch of China Postdoctoral Science Fund project“Social Cost and Long-term Impact of China’s Industrial Policy:Theory and Empirical Research”(2017M610667) The authors take sole responsibility for the paper 

主　　题：local debt economic cycle promotion pressure 

摘      要：This paper aims to examine the dynamic characteristics of local government debt in the economic cycle and to explore the *** the provincial panel data from 2002 to 2014 and system GMM,this paper finds that the accumulation rate of local debt is characterized by *** each additional percentage of the output gap,the implicit debt growth rate may increase by 5.92%and 3.97%respectively during the boom and *** with controlled the market financing environment,this feature is still *** empirical analysis finds that officials’promotion pressure aggravates the pro-cyclical nature of local *** debt is not only an important financing tool for local governments to ease capital constraints and stimulate economic growth,but also threatens economic stability because of its risk *** paper argues that local governments have different emphasis on their goals at different stages of the economic cycle which may be an important reason for the pro-cyclical characteristics of local debts.