Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Analysis of“Cold”Response to“Two-Child”Policy

作     者：Weidong Jin Jiejing Gong Zhonggen Mao 

作者机构：School of EconomicsShandong University of Finance and EconomicsChina Western China Economic Research Center at Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChina 

出 版 物：《China Finance and Economic Review》 (中国财政与经济研究（英文）)

年 卷 期：2018年第7卷第4期

页      面：71-88页

学科分类：0303[法学-社会学] 03[法学] 030302[法学-人口学] 

基　　金：Major project of Shandong Soft Science Research Program“Thoughts and Countermeasures of Scientific and Technological Innovation Promoting Supply-Side Structural Reform”(2016RZB01041) Shandong Social Sciences Planning Research Project“Quality-Oriented Standardization Construction of Urban and Rural Compulsory Education”(16CGLJ10) Shandong Provincial Colleges and Universities Superiority Discipline Talents Team Training Program 

主　　题：fertility policy fertility costs text analysis quasi-experimental analysis 

摘      要：Recently,the policy of relaxing the“two-childbirth control has obviously met a“coldresponse,and China’s population growth is facing a huge risk of“cliff-type*** text analysis and quasi-experimental method,this paper theoretically and empirically demonstrates the change of fertility costs in urban and rural areas and its influence on fertility rate,and then on the effect of“two-childfertility *** results show that,in recent years,as fertility costs change,the fertility desire of rural families has greatly reduced,while those of urban families has increased slightly,then the fertility desire of urban and rural areas declines in *** the same time,the actual fertility rate is much lower than the desirable fertility level,so the“two-childpolicy fails to achieve satisfactory *** key to the future population policy reform in China is to draw lessons from the historical experience of developed countries and eliminate the adverse effects of changes in fertility costs through fertility incentives measures.