Attribution analysis and multi-scenario prediction of NDVI drivers in the Xilin Gol grassland,China

作     者：XU Mengran ZHANG Jing LI Zhenghai MO Yu XU Mengran;ZHANG Jing;LI Zhenghai;MO Yu

作者机构：College of Enoironment and BioresourcesDalian Minzu UniversityDalian 116600China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Arid Land》 (干旱区科学（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第14卷第9期

页      面：941-961页

核心收录：

学科分类：0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 090503[农学-草业科学] 0909[农学-草学] 07[理学] 070601[理学-气象学] 0905[农学-畜牧学] 09[农学] 0903[农学-农业资源与环境] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(31500384,31971464) the Young Science and Technology Talents Support Program in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(NJYT-19-B31) the Liaoning Province Joint Fund Project(2020-MZLH-11) 

主　　题：normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) grassland degradation geographical detector Cellular Automat(CA)–Markov model Xilin Gol grassland 

摘      要：Grassland degradation is influenced by climate change and human activities,and has become a major obstacle for the development of arid and semi-arid areas,posing a series of environmental and socio-economic *** in-depth understanding of the inner relations among grassland vegetation dynamics,climate change,and human activities is therefore greatly significant for understanding the variation in regional environmental conditions and predicting future developmental *** on MODIS(moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer)NDVI(normalized difference vegetation index)data from 2000 to 2020,our objective is to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of NDVI in the Xilin Gol grassland,Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,*** with 12 natural factors and human activity factors in the same period,the dominant driving factors and their interactions were identified by using the geographic detector model,and multiple scenarios were also simulated to forecast the possible paths of future NDVI changes in this *** results showed that:(1)in the past 21 a,vegetation cover in the Xilin Gol grassland exhibited an overall increasing trend,and the vegetation restoration(84.53%)area surpassed vegetation degradation area(7.43%);(2)precipitation,wind velocity,and livestock number were the dominant factors affecting NDVI(the explanatory power of these factors exceeded 0.4).The interaction between average annual wind velocity and average annual precipitation,and between average annual precipitation and livestock number greatly affected NDVI changes(the explanatory power of these factors exceeded 0.7).Moreover,the impact of climate change on NDVI was more significant than human activities;and(3)scenario analysis indicated that NDVI in the Xinlin Gol grassland increased under the scenarios of reduced wind velocity,increased precipitation,and ecological *** contrast,vegetation coverage restoration in this area was significantly reduced under the scenarios o