Development and evaluation of a predictive nomogram for survival in heat stroke patients: a retrospective cohort study

作     者：Fei Shao Xian Shi Shu-hua Huo Qing-yu Liu Ji-xue Shi Jian Kang Ping Gong Sheng-tao Yan Guo-xing Wang Li-jie Qin Fei Wang Ke Feng Feng-ying Chen Yong-jie Yin Tao Ma Yan Li Yang Wu Hao Cui Chang-xiao Yu Song Yang Wei Gan Sai Wang Liu-ye-zi Du Ming-chen Zhao Zi-ren Tang Shen Zhao Fei Shao;Xian Shi;Shu-hua Huo;Qing-yu Liu;Ji-xue Shi;Jian Kang;Ping Gong;Sheng-tao Yan;Guo-xingWang;Li-jie Qin;Fei Wang;Ke Feng;Feng-ying Chen;Yong-jie Yin;Tao Ma;Yan Li;Yang Wu;Hao Cui;Chang-xiao Yu;Song Yang;Wei Gan;Sai Wang;Liu-ye-zi Du;Ming-chen Zhao;Zi-ren Tang;Shen Zhao

作者机构：Department of Emergency MedicineBeijing Chaoyang HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100020China Department of Emergency MedicineHebei Yanda HospitalLangfang 065201China Department of Emergency MedicineBeijing Huairou HospitalBeijing 101400China Department of Emergency Medicinethe Second Hospital of Hebei Medical UniversityShijiazhuang 050000China Department of Emergency Medicinethe Second Affi liated Hospital of Shandong First Medical UniversityTai’an 271000China Department of Emergency Medicinethe First Affi liated Hospital of Dalian Medical UniversityDalian 116011China Department of Emergency MedicineChina-Japan Friendship HospitalBeijing 100029China Department of Emergency MedicineBeijing Friendship HospitalBeijing 100050China Department of Emergency MedicineHenan Provincial People’s HospitalZhengzhou 450003China Department of Emergency MedicineBeijing Tsinghua Changung HospitalBeijing 102218China Department of Emergency MedicineGeneral Hospital of Ningxia Medical UniversityYinchuan 750004China Department of Emergency Medicinethe Affi liated Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical UniversityHohhot 010050China Department of Emergency Medicinethe Second Hospital of Jilin UniversityChangchun 130021China Department of Emergency Medicinethe First Hospital of China Medical UniversityShenyang 110001China Department of Emergency Medicinethe Second Hospital of Shanxi Medical UniversityTaiyuan 030001China Department of Big Data ResearchGoodwill Hessian Health Technology Co.Ltd.Beijing 100085China School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijing 100083China Beijing Key Laboratory of Cardiopulmonary Cerebral ResuscitationBeijing 100020China Department of Critical Care MedicineBeijing Friendship HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijing 100050China 

出 版 物：《World Journal of Emergency Medicine》 (世界急诊医学杂志（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第13卷第5期

页      面：355-360页

核心收录：

学科分类：1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

主　　题：Heat stroke Nomogram Survival Prognosis 

摘      要：BACKGROUND:This study aimed to establish an eff ective nomogram to predict the survival of heat stroke(HS)based on risk ***:This was a retrospective,observational multicenter cohort *** analyzed patients diagnosed with HS,who were treated between May 1 and September 30,2018 at 15 tertiary hospitals from 11 cities in Northern ***:Among the 175 patients,32 patients(18.29%)died before hospital *** the univariate analysis,mechanical ventilation,initial mean arterial pressure70 mmHg,maximum heart rate,lab results on day 1(white blood cell count,alanine aminotransferase,creatinine),and Glasgow admission prediction score were included in multivariate *** Cox regression showed that invasive ventilation,initial mean arterial pressure70 mmHg(1 mmHg=0.133 kPa),and Glasgow admission prediction score were independent risk factors for *** nomogram was established for predicting 7-d and 14-d survival in the training *** nomogram exhibited a concordance index(C-index)of 0.880(95%confidence interval[95%CI]0.831-0.930)by bootstrapping validation(B=1,000).Furthermore,the nomogram performed better when predicting 14-d survival,compared to 7-d *** prognostic index cut-off value was set at 2.085,according to the operating characteristic curve for overall survival *** model showed good calibration ability in the internal and external validation ***:A novel nomogram,integrated with prognostic factors,was proposed;it was highly predictive of the survival in HS patients.