A logistic model for magnetic energy storage in solar active regions

作     者：Hua-Ning Wang Yan-Mei Cui Han He 

作者机构：National Astronomical Observatories Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100012 China Space Science Research and Application Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100080 China 

出 版 物：《Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics》 (天文和天体物理学研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2009年第9卷第6期

页      面：687-693页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 070401[理学-天体物理] 0704[理学-天文学] 

基　　金：Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 

主　　题：Sun photosphere -- Sun magnetic field -- Sun solar activity 

摘      要：Previous statistical analyses of a large number of SOHO/MDI full disk longitudinal magnetograms provided a result that demonstrated how responses of solar flares to photospheric magnetic properties can be fitted with sigmoid functions. A logistic model reveals that these fitted sigmoid functions might be related to the free energy storage process in solar active regions. Although this suggested model is rather simple, the free energy level of active regions can be estimated and the probability of a solar flare with importance over a threshold can be forecast within a given time window.