Runoff projections of the Qinling Mountains and their impact on water demand of Guanzhong region in Northwest China

作     者：ZHANG Zhao-peng DUAN Ke-qin LIU Huan-cai MENG Ya-li CHEN Rong LI Da-wei LI Shuang-shuang ZHANG Zhao-peng;DUAN Ke-qin;LIU Huan-cai;MENG Ya-li;CHEN Rong;LI Da-wei;LI Shuang-shuang

作者机构：School of Geographical Sciences and TourismShaanxi Normal UniversityXi'an 710062China School of Geographical SciencesShanxi Normal UniversityLinfen 041081China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Mountain Science》 (山地科学学报（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第19卷第8期

页      面：2272-2285页

核心收录：

学科分类：082802[工学-农业水土工程] 08[工学] 0828[工学-农业工程] 081501[工学-水文学及水资源] 0815[工学-水利工程] 

基　　金：funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41771030 41901071) 

主　　题：Qinling Mountains Climate change Runoff Hydrological model CMIP6 System Dynamics 

摘      要：The Qinling Mountains are the main source of water supply to the Weihe River and Hanjiang River,but systematic studies on runoff changes in this region are *** study simulated the annual runoff in the Qinling Mountains from 1970 to 2015 using the Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC)hydrological model and projected runoff changes from 2015 to 2100 under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways(SSPs).Moreover,the water demand in the north and south of the Qinling Mountains from 2019 to 2100 was analyzed by constructing a system dynamic *** results show that the mean annual runoff in the southern and northern slopes of the Qinling Mountains from 1970 to 2015 were 21.5×10^(9) and 3.52×10^(9) m^(3),*** the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2015 to 2100,the mean annual runoff in the southern(northern)slope will increase by 2.9(1.5),2.0(1.4),2.7(1.6),and-2.1(0.4)×10^(9) m^(3),*** mean annual water consumption in the northern foothills of the Qinling Mountains for Baoji,Xi’an,and Weinan cities is projected to increase from 4.1×10^(9) m^(3) in 2015 to 7.6×10^(9) m^(3) in 2100,while that in the southern foothills for Hanzhong,Ankang,and Shangluo cites is projected to increase from 2.7×10^(9) m^(3) in 2015 to 4.8×10^(9) m^(3) in ***,runoff in the southern slope is much larger than the water demand in the southern *** increase of runoff in the northern slope cannot satisfy the water demand in the northern ***,the South-to-North Water Transfer project is proposed for meeting the water demand in the northern *** the premise of ensuring downstream water demand,approximately 10.5×10^(9) m^(3) of water resources can be transferred from the southern slope to the Weihe River and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan regions under SSP1-2.6,but only 3.9×10^(9) m^(3) can be transferred under SSP5-8.5.