Impacts of timing,length,and intensity of behavioral interventions to COVID-19 dynamics:North Carolina countylevel examples

作     者：Claire Quiner Kasey Jones Georgiy Bobashev 

作者机构：RTI International3040 E.Cornwallis RoadPO Box 12194Research Triangle ParkNC27709USA 

出 版 物：《Infectious Disease Modelling》 (传染病建模（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第7卷第3期

页      面：535-544页

学科分类：0710[理学-生物学] 1004[医学-公共卫生与预防医学(可授医学、理学学位)] 1002[医学-临床医学] 100201[医学-内科学(含：心血管病、血液病、呼吸系病、消化系病、内分泌与代谢病、肾病、风湿病、传染病)] 10[医学] 

基　　金：This study was funded by an National Science Foundation grant 2027802 Operational COVID-19 Forecasting with Multisource Information 

主　　题：Sars-cov-2 Public health decision-making Infection control policies 

摘      要：We sought to examine how the impact of revocable behavioral interventions,e.g.,shelterin-place,varies throughout an epidemic,as well as the role that the proportion of susceptible individuals had on an intervention s *** estimated the theoretical impacts of start day,length,and intensity of interventions on disease transmission and illustrated them on COVID-19 dynamics inWake County,North Carolina,to inform how interventions can be most *** used a Susceptible,Exposed,Infectious,and Recovered(SEIR)model to estimate epidemic curves with modifications to the disease transmission parameter(β).We designed modifications to simulate events likely to increase transmission(e.g.,long weekends,holiday seasons)or behavioral interventions likely to decrease it(e.g.,shelter-in-place,masking).We compared the resultant curves shape,timing,and cumulative case count to baseline and across other modified *** led to changes in COVID-19 dynamics,including moving the peak s location,height,and *** proportion susceptible,at the start day,strongly influenced their *** interventions shifted the curve,while interventions near the peak modified shape and case *** some scenarios,in which the transmission parameter was decreased,the final cumulative count increased over *** showed that the timing of revocable interventions has a strong impact on their *** same intervention applied at different time points,corresponding to different proportions of susceptibility,resulted in qualitatively differential *** estimation of the proportion susceptible is critical for understanding an intervention s *** findings presented here provide evidence of the importance of estimating the proportion of the population that is susceptible when predicting the impact of behavioral infection control *** emphasis should be placed on the estimation of this epidemic component in intervention design and decision-makin