China’s Energy Transition Pathway in a Carbon Neutral Vision

作     者：Shu Zhang Wenying Chen Shu Zhang;Wenying Chen

作者机构：Institute of EnergyEnvironment and EconomyTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China 

出 版 物：《Engineering》 (工程（英文）)

年 卷 期：2022年第8卷第7期

页      面：64-76页

核心收录：

学科分类：0202[经济学-应用经济学] 02[经济学] 083001[工学-环境科学] 0830[工学-环境科学与工程（可授工学、理学、农学学位）] 020205[经济学-产业经济学] 08[工学] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71690243 and 51861135102) the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China (2018YFC1509006) the World Bank Group (7202065) 

主　　题：Carbon neutrality Energy transition Climate change mitigation China TIMES model Synergistic effects 

摘      要：China’s energy system requires a thorough transformation to achieve carbon ***,leveraging the highly acclaimed the Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System model of China(China TIMES)that takes energy,the environment,and the economy into consideration,four carbon-neutral scenarios are proposed and compared for different emission peak times and carbon emissions in *** results show that China’s carbon emissions will peak at 10.3–10.4 Gt between 2025 and *** 2050,renewables will account for 60%of total energy consumption(calorific value calculation)and 90%of total electricity generation,and the electrification rate will be close to 60%.The energy transition will bring sustained air quality improvement,with an 85%reduction in local air pollutants in 2050 compared with 2020 levels,and an early emission peak will yield more near-term *** peak attainment requires the extensive deployment of renewables over the next decade and an accelerated phasing out of coal after ***,it will bring benefits such as obtaining better air quality sooner,reducing cumulative CO_(2) emissions,and buying more time for other sectors to *** pressure for more ambitious emission reductions in 2050 can be transmitted to the near future,affecting renewable energy development,energy service demand,and welfare losses.