The Chinese Carbon-Neutral Goal:Challenges and Prospects

作     者：Ning ZENG Kejun JIANG Pengfei HAN Zeke HAUSFATHER Junji CAO Daniel KIRK-DAVIDOFF Shaukat ALI Sheng ZHOU Ning ZENG;Kejun JIANG;Pengfei HAN;Zeke HAUSFATHER;Junji CAO;Daniel KIRK-DAVIDOFF;Shaukat ALI;Sheng ZHOU

作者机构：Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Scienceand Earth System Science Interdisciplinary CenterUniversity of MarylandCollege Park 20742MarylandUSA State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid DynamicsInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Energy Research InstituteNational Development and Reform CommissionBeijing 100045China Carbon Neutrality Research CenterInstitute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Breakthrough InstituteOakland 94612CaliforniaUSA Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Global Change Impact Study CentreMinistry of Climate ChangeIslamabad 45250Pakistan Institute of EnergyEnvironment and EconomyTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China 

出 版 物：《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 (大气科学进展（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第39卷第8期

页      面：1229-1238,I0027-I0030页

核心收录：

学科分类：08[工学] 083305[工学-城乡生态环境与基础设施规划] 0706[理学-大气科学] 0833[工学-城乡规划学] 

基　　金：supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(Grant No.2017YFB0504000). 

主　　题：carbon neutral carbon dioxide reductions energy system transformation distributed energy system model projections 

摘      要：On 22 September 2020,within the backdrop of the COVID-19 global pandemic,China announced its climate goal for peak carbon emissions before 2030 and to reach carbon neutrality before 2060.This carbon-neutral goal is generally considered to cover all anthropogenic greenhouse gases.The planning effort is now in full swing in China,but the pathway to decarbonization is unclear.The needed transition towards non-fossil fuel energy and its impact on China and the world may be more profound than its reform and development over the past 40 years,but the challenges are enormous.Analysis of four representative scenarios shows significant differences in achieving the carbon-neutral goal,particularly the contribution of non-fossil fuel energy sources.The high target values for nuclear,wind,and bioenergy have approached their corresponding resource limitations,with solar energy being the exception,suggesting solar’s critical role.We also found that the near-term policies that allow for a gradual transition,followed by more drastic changes after 2030,can eventually reach the carbon-neutral goal and lead to less of a reduction in cumulative emissions,thus inconsistent with the IPCC 1.5°C scenario.The challenges and prospects are discussed in the historical context of China’s socio-economic reform,globalization,international collaboration,and development.