Construction of Forecast and Early Warning System of Meteorological and Geological Disasters in Qinghai Province

作     者：Qingping LI Qin GUAN Aijuan BAI Jinhai LI Yujun ZHU 

作者机构：Qinghai Provincial Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and MitigationXining 811300China Huangnanzhou Meteorological BureauTongren 811300China Qinghai Provincial Meteorological ObservatoryXining 831100China Chengdu University of Information EngineeringChengdu 210025China 

出 版 物：《Meteorological and Environmental Research》 (气象与环境研究（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第13卷第3期

页      面：49-55页

学科分类：081803[工学-地质工程] 08[工学] 0818[工学-地质资源与地质工程] 

基　　金：Supported by the Project of Key Laboratory for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Qinghai Province (QFZ-2021-Z04) Project of Qinghai Science and Technology Department (2020-ZJ-739) Key Project of Qinghai Provincial Meteorological Bureau (QXZ2020-03) 

主　　题：Meteorological and geological disasters Precipitation threshold Soil volumetric water content Continuous precipitation Short-term heavy precipitation Forecast and early warning 

摘      要：Based on the meteorological and geological disaster data, ground observation data set, CLDAS grid point data set, and EC, BJ and other model product data during 2008-2020, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of meteorological and geological disasters and precipitation were analyzed, and the causes of the occurrence of meteorological geological disasters and the deviation of model precipitation forecast were revealed. Besides, an objective precipitation forecast system and a forecast and early warning system of meteorological and geological disasters were established. The results show that meteorological and geological disasters and precipitation were mainly concentrated from May to October, of which continuous precipitation appeared frequently in June and September, and convective precipitation was mainly distributed in July-August;the occurrence frequency of meteorological and geological disasters was basically consistent with the distribution of accumulated precipitation and short-term heavy precipitation, and they were mainly concentrated in the southern and eastern parts of Qinghai. Meteorological and geological disasters were basically caused by heavy rain and above, and meteorological and geological disasters were divided into three types: continuous precipitation(type I), short-term heavy precipitation(type II) and mixed precipitation(type III). For type I, the early warning conditions of meteorological and geological disasters in Qinghai are as follows: if the soil volumetric water content difference between 0-10 and 10-40 cm is ≤0.03 mm^(3)/mm^(3), or the soil volumetric water content at one of the depths is ≥0.25 mm^(3)/mm^(3), the future effective precipitation reaches 8.4 mm in 1 h, 10.2 mm in 2 h, 11.5 mm in 3 h, 14.2 mm in 6 h, 17.7 mm in 12 h, and 18.2 mm in 24 h, and such warning conditions are mainly used in Yushu, Guoluo, southern Hainan, southern Huangnan and other places. For type II, when the future effective precipitation is u