Foreign Trade Survey Data:Do They Help in Forecasting Exports and Imports?

作     者：BAI Yun WANG Shouyang ZHANG Xun BAI Yun;WANG Shouyang;ZHANG Xun

作者机构：Academy of Mathematics and Systems ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China School of Economics and ManagementUniversity of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China Center for Forecasting ScienceChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China 

出 版 物：《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 (系统科学与复杂性学报（英文版）)

年 卷 期：2022年第35卷第5期

页      面：1839-1862页

核心收录：

学科分类：12[管理学] 02[经济学] 0202[经济学-应用经济学] 020206[经济学-国际贸易学] 1201[管理学-管理科学与工程(可授管理学、工学学位)] 081104[工学-模式识别与智能系统] 08[工学] 0835[工学-软件工程] 0701[理学-数学] 0811[工学-控制科学与工程] 0812[工学-计算机科学与技术（可授工学、理学学位）] 

基　　金：partially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71422015,71988101 the National Center for Mathematics and Interdisciplinary Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences 

主　　题：ARIMAX artificial neural network composite index forecasting foreign trade Granger causality test survey data 

摘      要：Business survey,which starts from the microeconomic level,is a widely used short-term forecasting tool in *** this study,the authors examine whether foreign trade survey data collected by China’s Ministry of Commerce would provide reliable forecasts of China’s foreign *** research procedure is designed from three perspectives including forecast information test,turning point forecast,and out-of-sample value ***,Granger causality test detects whether survey data lead exports and ***,business cycle analysis,a non-model based method,is *** authors construct composite indexes with business survey data to forecast turning points of foreign ***,model-based numerical forecasting methods,including the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model with Exogenous Variables(ARIMAX)and the artificial neural networks(ANNs)models are *** results show that survey data granger cause imports and exports,the leading composite index provides signal for changes of trade cycles,and quantitative models including survey data generate more accurate forecasts than benchmark *** is concluded that trade survey data has excellent predictive capabilities for imports and exports,which can offer some priorities for government policy-making and enterprise decision making.