Influence of changes in extreme daily rainfall distribution on the stability of residual soil slopes

作     者：Thapthai Chaithong 

作者机构：Department of GeographyFaculty of Social SciencesKasetsart UniversityBangkokThailand 

出 版 物：《Big Earth Data》 (地球大数据（英文）)

年 卷 期：2023年第7卷第1期

页      面：101-125页

核心收录：

学科分类：07[理学] 0837[工学-安全科学与工程] 0706[理学-大气科学] 

基　　金：This research was supported by the Department of Geography,Faculty of Social Sciences,Kasetsart University This research was supported by the Department of Geography,Faculty of Social Sciences,Kasetsart University. 

主　　题：Extreme rainfall generalized extreme value distribution slope stability landslide pore water pressure climate change residual soil 

摘      要：Many landslides triggered by intense rainfall have occurred in moun-tainous areas in Thailand,causing major economic losses and infra-structure damage.Extreme daily rainfall is a significant trigger for hillslope instability.Increases in extreme daily rainfall intensity due to climate change may be one of the key factors responsible for the increased landslides.Thus,in this context,changes in the intensity of extreme daily rainfall in Chiang Mai Province in North Thailand and their effects on hillslope stability are analyzed.Extreme rainfall is modeled using a generalized extreme value distribution and esti-mated for various return periods.A numerical analysis of seepage and an infinite slope stability model are combined to understand the hillslope response under extreme rainfall conditions.The analysis period is divided into two periods of 34 years:1952 to 1985 and 1986 to 2019.According to the analysis results,the distribution of extreme daily rainfall changes in terms of location.The average annual daily maximum rainfall increased by approximately 11.13%.The maximum decrease in the safety factor is approximately 4.5%;therefore,these changes in extreme daily rainfall should be consid-ered in future landslide prevention policies.