Dynamic quantitative risk assessment of LNG bunkering SIMOPs based on Bayesian network
作者机构：Australian Maritime College(AMC)University of TasmaniaLauncestonTas 7248Australia
出 版 物：《Journal of Ocean Engineering and Science》 (海洋工程与科学（英文）)
年 卷 期：2023年第8卷第5期
页 面：508-526页
核心收录：
学科分类：0820[工学-石油与天然气工程] 08[工学] 082003[工学-油气储运工程]
主 题：Maritime Alternative fuel Safety LNG bunkering SIMOPs Dynamic risk
摘 要：Liquified natural gas(LNG)bunkering simultaneous operations(SIMOPs)refers to the operations(such as cargo operations,port activities and ship maintenance)occurring around LNG *** pose new risks to LNG bunkering,because the operations are dynamically interlocked in which the occurrence probabilities of potential consequences change at different times due to commencement or completion of specific SIMOP ***,traditional static risk assessment approaches are not able to take the dynamic nature of these new risks into *** article proposes a dynamic quantitative risk as-sessment(DQRA)methodology based on the Bayesian network(BN)to develop better understanding of dynamic risks of LNG bunkering *** methodology is demonstrated and evaluated through a truck-to-ship LNG bunkering case *** results and discussion of the case study validate the utility of the proposed methodology and demonstrate that BNs are efficient in performing the probability calcu-lations and are flexible in conducting causal *** main innovation of this work is realizing the quantification of risks at different times,which reflects the most essential time-changing characteristics of risks associated with LNG bunkering SIMOPs.
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